The new electoral season opens
Current Form
Less than two months ago the 2009 election season reached its climax with the combined European and shire county elections.
Since then the number of local by elections has fallen, but there have been opinion polls and the unexpected Norwich North by election.
The by election was caused by the resignation of Labour MP Ian Gibson, who had been banned from standing as a Labour candidate at the next election as a result of the expenses coverage and consequently resigned his seat. Taking place on 23rd July, the Conservative candidate, Chloe Smith, was returned with a majority of 7,348 overturning Ian Gibson’s previous majority of 5,459 with a swing of 16.5%. Labour, suffered a drop of 26% in their vote, the largest in a government held seat for many decades.
Chloe Smith at 27, becomes the youngest MP in the current Parliament and the first ever MP to be called Chloe.
During July there were 25 local elections for 26 seats (there was a double vacancy in the same ward of Gosport). Two of the contests were countermanded polls from the June county elections.
Only the Conservatives fought all 26 seats. The Liberal Democrats fought 20 seats and Labour 19. Over a third of the seats changed hands with the Conservatives losing five and gaining one.
In August there were just nine by elections but with six seats changing hands.
The Conservatives
On the day of the Norwich North by election the Conservatives actually lost three seats; to a Green in Brighton and Hove and to UKIP on Cambridgeshire County Council and Huntingdon District Council.
Elsewhere the Conservatives lost seats to the Liberal Democrats in Sutton and to Labour on Warwickshire County Council and Derbyshire Dales District Council. As a compensation the Conservatives gained a previously BNP held seat in the Brinsley ward of Broxtowe, which was once a Labour stronghold. Significantly the ward is in the Ashfield constituency, represented by Geoff Hoon MP, who has been much criticised over expense claims.
Conservative seats were retained in East Dorset, Lichfield, Suffolk Coastal, Erewash, and Wellingborough.
In August the party gained a seat in West Lindsey from the Liberal Democrats and retained seats in Kings Lynn and West Norfolk and Blackpool. The party lost a seat to a Green in Scarborough.
Labour
Labour regained a seat narrowly lost in June, on Warwickshire County Council and made a surprise gain on Derbyshire Dales District Council.
However, they lost seats in Kensington and Chelsea (in the deprived Colville ward which has been consistently Labour for over 60 years) to a Liberal Democrat, who becomes the first Liberal to be elected to this council since before the Second War and in Redcar and Cleveland.
Seats were retained in Stockport, Tameside and on Nottinghamshire County Council.
The Liberal Democrats
The party made gains in Sutton, Kensington and Chelsea, Ashfield and Forest of Dean and Redcar and Cleveland. Retentions were in Gosport (two seats) Wychavon, Christchurch, St Helens, Brent, Harrogate and Cheltenham.
The party sustained losses to the Greens in Scarborough and to an Independent in Torridge.
The Greens
The Greens had an excellent summer, perhaps epitomising an anti political party mood. The party gained three seats, in the major unitary of Brighton and Hove from the Conservatives and two seats in the Borough of Scarborough, one formerly Conservative and the other previously Liberal Democrat.
In Suffolk Coastal the Greens came from nowhere to poll 34% of the vote and also doubled their vote in Gosport.
Opinion polls
Published opinion polls continue to show a double digit Conservative lead with the party polling just above 40%of the vote and Labour marooned in the mid 20s.
Looking ahead
During August the elected Mayor of Bedford, Frank Branston, passed away. Twice elected as an Independent, Frank Branston began his career as a journalist before moving on to publishing his own paper, Bedfordshire on Sunday. An election for a successor will take place on October 15th. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the Liberal Democrats are well placed to win the post.
It now appears certain that there will be a combined general and local elections in 2010, the favoured date being Thursday 6th May.
It is just possible that this could be delayed until June 3rd, but that will require the current Parliament to complete its entire five year mandate, something only seen twice since 1945. These were the elections of 1964 and 1997, both of which resulted in a change of government.
So May 2010 remains the most likely date.
The local elections of 2010
There are scheduled elections in 166 local authorities throughout England for terms of office of councillors due to expire in 2014.
These are:
32 London Boroughs; all seats to be contested along with Mayoral elections in Hackney, Lewisham and Newham.
36 Metropolitan Boroughs; one third of the seats in every authority to be contested.
20 Unitary Councils; one third of the seats to be contested
78 Shire District Councils: One half of the seats to be contested in seven councils and one third in the remaining 71. In addition there is to be an election for the Mayor of Watford along with one third of councillors in the authority.
A number of these elections are in particularly interesting authorities and we will commence our survey on a regional basis starting next month.
The general election of 2010
The next general election will be fought on revised constituency boundaries.
Work on reviewing the English constituencies commenced in February 2000. Under the Scotland Act, new boundaries were drawn starting in 2001 and implemented in time for the 2005 general election. The reason for this being that following devolution Scottish constituencies should have electorates in line with those in England and as a result Scotland was reduced from 72 to 59 constituencies.
The next parliament will have 650 members, an increase of four. This is a result of England having 533 seats, up from 529 in the present parliament.
Therein lies the controversy of the review. The commission has a number of rules to work to. Counties cannot be breached by constituency boundaries, although London and Metropolitan Borough boundaries can now be crossed. As a result there is an ongoing imbalance in numbers, which continuously works against the Conservative Party, as urban constituencies tend to be smaller with declining electorates and suburban and rural constituencies, larger with increasing electorates.
The boundary commissions work to an electoral quota; 69,934 for an English constituency and 55,540 for a Welsh constituency. This quota is defined as electors registered in 2000; a full decade before the revised constituencies come into operation. By the time of the completion of the review, 39 out of England’s revised constituencies were between 10-20% smaller than the electoral quota and twenty were between 10-20% above the electoral quota. There is no doubt that this variation will have increased by the time of the 2010 election. The largest variation above the quota is the Isle of Wight, with a 2000 electorate of 103,480. At the other end of the scale, the Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency has a 2000 electorate of 57,204.
55 English constituencies have unchanged boundaries and a further 155 have a margin of change just 5%. However, 250 constituencies have alterations that exceed 25%. The new Birmingham Hall Green constituency for instance, has an electorate of 74,814. However, just 21,000 of these are from the current Hall Green constituency. In short this is a completely different constituency, although the previous name remains.
London and each of the six metropolitan counties will lose a constituency. The following counties will each gain a constituency; Avon, Cornwall, Derbyshire, Devon, Essex, Hampshire, Lancashire, Norfolk, Northamptonshire, Warwickshire and Wiltshire.
Elsewhere changes to boundaries suggest that some constituencies may have voted differently in 2005. Labour would probably have retained Croydon Central and Northampton South, but lost Enfield North, Finchley and Golders Green, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Staffordshire Moorlands, Thanet South and Wirral West to the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats would have lost Rochdale to Labour and Solihull to the Conservatives.
Should David Cameron win the general election, he is pledged to reduce the size of the House of Commons by 10% and will do this whilst using up to date electoral quota and amending the rules to allow constituencies to cross boundaries thereby ensuring more equal electorates, across the country.
As we review the local elections for each region we will also look at the parliamentary changes and highlight the constituencies to watch.
Next month
We will look at reactions to the party conferences, local by elections and review the electoral prospects in the north of England.
This bulletin was posted by Adam Browning on behalf of its author Peter Golds OBE, Consultant to PPS Group
Written by Adam Browning