DISCLAIMER:It is the weekend therefore I can be as partisan as I like. However, given that we as the British people chose to effectively vote for ‘None of the Above’ and therefore don’t actually have a Government perhaps we are all now officially anarchists – a very wise man once told me it was the only form of political ideology which was of any value and which he could therefore support - in which case there is probably no point in being partisan until I actually know who I’m siding for and who I’m against in terms of Government.To make the whole thing even more exciting… there is a competition at the bottom of this email so carry on scrolling down as you have to be in it to win it!*****************************************
NationalIt is likely that this General Election will go down in history as the exception that proves every electoral and political rule and will be studied for decades to come by political science students. However, whilst this is going to provide some excellent academic fodder, it doesn’t at this stage help us with the question of who is actually in charge here?The Clegg and Cameron pre-nuptial agreement talks continue with detailed discussions over dowries, who takes the bins out, whether it is acceptable to leave the toilet seat up and, most importantly, whether they can agree on which side of the bed to sleep on. Apparently we will know by Monday whether it is on or off. If it is on, the talk is of it being a long-lasting commitment, not simply a marriage of convenience – however, convincing both the public and the markets of this is likely to be difficult. If it is off, then the options left open are for Clegg to try and rekindle a relationship with Labour, however, this would also require the involvement of several other parties to make it work which may be a bit like going off on honeymoon and then coming home to find that both sets of in-laws have moved in. The other option would be for the Conservatives, as a scorned party, to go off and set up home on their own knowing that it is better to be single than in a doomed relationship…There are real questions over how successful any coalition would be – arguably, most Lib Dem members are to the left of Nick Clegg and most Conservative members are to the right of David Cameron which doesn’t leave much in terms of middle-ground. For a country with a long and proud history of adversarial politics the idea of coalition and consensus is anathema to many; if you’ve ever wondered why, at PMQs, the leaders seem to be leaning awkwardly onto the bench in the middle with their feet uncomfortably far back, it’s because drawn on the floor is a ‘fighting line’ which the leaders must stand behind, the reason being that it is just longer than two sword lengths apart meaning that in the heat of an argument one member can’t draw their sword and slay the other… I’ve made my point…It would currently seem that the smart money is being put on a Conservative minority government with official ‘Con-Dem’ coalition in second place and a ‘FLib-FLab’ coalition back in third. All of this is dependent on the absence of successful legal challenges in areas where the vote was close and people were turned away from the polling booths (Liberty is considering mounting a legal challenge on behalf of those denied their voting rights; sympathy for those voters who wished to vote after work and were unable to is clear, sympathy for students who chose to rock up at 9:45pm after having an entire day to get down to the polling booth is more difficult to muster…)Ultimately, we can expect some uncertainty for some time to come. In terms of what this might mean for the development industry well, quite frankly, probably not a lot. It would be hard to see much happening in the next 6-12 months by way of amending planning policy and implementing major change. However, there are areas where both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems agree which could potentially provide good opportunities to promote a united front (whether as an official coalition or the Tories ruling as a minority Government). Specifically:
- The localism agenda – giving power back to local people and devolving decision-making down to the lowest level
- Abolishing regional housing targets
- Abolishing RDAs
- Ring-fencing Council Tax in areas where development takes place
- Abolishing the IPC and its functions – or merging it into PINS
- Local Housing Trusts
- Third Party Rights of Appeal
In areas where changes which may be seen as potential vote-winners could potentially be brought in without the need for primary legislation of financial outlay, then we may start to see some small changes. However, the fact remains that they will have more on their plate than planning. It would also be hard for a new minority or coalition government to bring in some of the bigger changes to local government finance, community incentives and the CIL in the short term – there may also be little appetite to do so. In the short to medium term, the question will really come in over what may happen as and when planning appeals are brought before the Secretary of State – if there is an official ’Con-Dem’ coalition could we see the likes of Sarah Teather in DCLG?? On what basis will a new Secretary of State make their decision – this is where we really need to watch what it happening, who sits where and how the chain of command works. It may well be through incremental means that we begin to get indications of how a new government will operate in this sphere.The area which may be impacted in the shorter-term could be major infrastructure – including energy, waste and transport. There are some big decisions to be made in relation to the UK’s energy policy and particularly in relation to nuclear power on which the new Government will have to move sooner rather than later; there are questions over the extent to which the Liberal Democrats in particular understand the critical nature of the impending energy crisis and really have either the will or ability to balance ideological concerns with strategic practicalities. Similarly in the need to deal with waste management in the UK; the Liberal Democrats take a very different position from the Conservatives in terms of the technologies they support and there may well be questions over how this type of infrastructure will be dealt with. However they are more likely to leave this to the local level and seek to keep this out of the national political debate, something they certainly cannot do with the nuclear debate.LocalWith all of the excitement of the General Election, the local election results have been rather overshadowed – you would have had to have made a deliberate effort to look up results to know what had happened. The locals showed a very different picture from the General Election with Labour achieving a net gain of a massive 15 local authorities, the Conservatives making a net loss of eight local authorities and, disastrously for them, the Lib Dems making a net loss of four local authorities. There are many reasons for this – in London and many of the metropolitans, the last local elections were in 2006 when the Labour Party was actually more unpopular than they are now so perhaps the only way was up. However, again, there seems to be a focus on making decisions for truly local reasons. It may well be that voters have punished local authorities for making cuts in spending and have therefore voted against them, therefore, because Labour were starting from a low point they were the natural winners from this. Or it could be that, faced with the prospect of a Conservative government or even a ‘Con-Dem’ coalition, the electorate sought to address the balance by voting Labour at the local level (whether consciously or unconsciously). There is some thought that people voted nationally against Brown, not necessarily against Labour and therefore voted locally for Labour.Labour not only held their own but saw a dramatic improvement in London where the Conservatives had been intending to achieve their own ‘triple-lock’ of dominance in the London local authorities, control of the GLA and a national government. Instead, the results saw Labour take back Ealing in a dramatic swing back from Conservative to Labour – Ealing was won by the Conservatives in a shock result in 2006 on the back of opposition to the proposals to the West London Tram. Ealing has long been regarded as a bellwether authority – whoever controls Ealing has traditionally always controlled Government – so this is an interesting transition! On top of this Labour gained Brent, Camden, Enfield, Harrow, Hounslow, Islington, Southwark, Lewisham and Waltham Forest and increased majorities in Lambeth, Tower Hamlets, Greenwich and Newham (in Newham they are now the sole party). Even in staunch Tory boroughs Wandsworth and Westminster, Labour made gains. They will be delighted with this result.Even in Manchester, where popular Leader, Richard Leese was forced to temporarily step down three weeks after being arrested and cautioned for allegedly attacking his step-daughter, an incident which may have been expected to dent Labour’s chances, the Labour vote remained unchanged. Birmingham remains in No Overall Control but Labour have edged closer to the Conservatives, something which Mike Whitby – the colourful and ambitious Conservative leader will not be happy to see.In terms of decision-making within London, several local authorities which have been under No Overall Control are now definitively under the rule of one party, which can only be beneficial for decision-making (clearly not guaranteeing that decisions will go the way people/applicants want, but may at least provide clarity). In boroughs such as Hounslow where it has always been on a political knife-edge with a minority Conservative authority seeking to work with a group of Community Group councillors, Lib Dems and Labour, the results this week wiped out both the Community Group and the Lib Dems bringing the Council into two party rule with Labour on 35 and Conservatives on 25. Ultimately this means a complete change in terms of the political make-up and personnel of the Council. This is repeated in several other boroughs.The Lib Dems lost both Sheffield and Liverpool, the former to No Overall Control and the latter to Labour (Labour last ruled in Liverpool under Derek Hatton). Both pose difficult questions as Sheffield is Nick Clegg’s local authority and Liverpool has long been a Lib Dem heartland. Add to this, the fact that the Conservatives took Richmond from the Lib Dems changing a 16 seat Lib Dem lead to a 6 seat Conservative lead, and right from under the nose of Lib Dem pin-up boy, Vince Cable, and it compounds the disappointing night the Lib Dems had at the national level. They will, at least, be relieved that they held onto Kingston upon Thames, avoiding wipe-out in this part of the south-east and also Cheltenham.On a strategic level, the Conservative command will have to ask themselves some searching questions about just why they did so poorly comparatively in London and the inner-cities – areas which they have spent an awful lot of time and money wooing in recent years. Not to mention the huge amounts of money poured into national seats such as Ed Balls’s in the hope of achieving their own ‘Portillo Moment’. Wider concerns are likely to be voiced over the allegations of corruption – particularly in areas such as Tower Hamlets were there was an inordinate number of voters registered for a postal vote at the last minute with up to 27 people being registered to one small flat in the past month. Either the problem of over-crowding in London is really reaching critical points or there is something rather ‘ungentlemanly’ happening. Election monitor staff from the developing world who came to observe the elections have expressed concern that the British system, based more on trust than anything else, is more vulnerable to corruption than any other system. It may well be that this is the last election we see which is held in such a way, regardless of changes to the voting system itself, certainly the way in which we are registered and enabled to vote cannot be continued.As ever, we will keep you updated as and when the political roulette wheel stops…The PPS Fantasy Cabinet Competition:Just to provide some entertainment, we are asking for submissions for people’s views on the potential future Cabinet. Submissions can be based on either your personal preferences or your predictions of what you think is most likely but must include either MPs or member of the House of Lords (either existing or predicted – for example, Lady Joanna Lumley for Foreign Secretary??), members of Eastenders or the Magic Roundabout will not be accepted as candidates, regardless of possible suitability for Government… Two prizes will be awarded – one for the most entertaining submission and one for the most accurate. Entries to me. Deadline will be dependent on when a Cabinet is actually formed – so we could be running this for some time…
*PREVIOUS BULLETIN*
DISCLAIMER:
This time I have given up on party politics completely as all three parties seem to be attempting to be morphing into each other so partisanship at this point is irrelevant and it is getting harder to work out which speech belong to which leader. In addition, I have now been looking at election results for 14 hours and, have decided that the person who emailed me this morning with the words ’you need to get out more’ may well be right. This is only trumped by the text received by Stephen Byfield, MD of PPS from PPS-staffer Thomas Docherty, now newly elected MP for Dunfermline and West Fife who announced his election to us all with the following words “Dear Boss, I quit.”
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The turn-out for the General Election this year was up to a record 84% in some places with overall turnout around the 65% mark. The Conservatives saw their share of the vote increase by 4%, the Lib Dems by 1%, ‘Others’ by 1% and Labours’ share down by 6%.
Total seats are as follows:
- Conservative - 305
- Labour - 258
- Lib Dem - 57
- DUP - 8
- SNP - 6
- Sinn Fein - 5
- Plaid Cymru - 3
- SDLP - 3
- Alliance Party - 1
- Green Party - 1
One result, in Thirsk & Malton, remains outstanding as the death of one of the candidates has delayed the vote.
Early today, Nick Clegg was indicating that he would be minded to look to form a government with the Conservatives, making the following statement:
“Now we’re in a very fluid political situation with no party enjoying an absolute majority. As I’ve said before, it seems to me in a situation like this, it’s vital that all political parties, all political leaders, act in the national interest, and not out of narrow party political advantage. I’ve also said that whichever party gets the most votes and the most seats, if not an absolute majority, has the first right to seek to govern, either on its own or by reaching out to other parties, and I stick to that view. It seems this morning that it’s the Conservative party that has more votes and more seats, though not an absolute majority, and that is why I think it is now for the Conservative party to prove that it is capable of seeking to govern in the national interest. At the same time, this election campaign has made it abundantly clear that our electoral system is broken, it simply doesn’t reflect the hopes and aspirations of the British people, so I repeat again my assurance, that whatever happens in the coming hours and days and weeks, I will continue to argue not only for the greater fairness in British society, not only the greater responsibility in economic policy making, but also for the extensive, real reforms that we need to fix our broken political system.“
The Labour command took themselves back to Downing Street to see if they could work out a deal with the Liberal Democrats with the clear intention of not accepting defeat until the last possible moment. In the meantime, the Conservatives highlighted that they could, if they chose, operate on the basis of a minority government.
Between 2pm and 3pm both Labour and the Conservatives put forward an offer to the Lib Dems – it was a bit like watching two marriage proposals being presented with each trying to assure the object of their affections of their sincerity, depth and enduring commitment…
Both promised much in the way of consensus working and stressed policy overlaps. Gordon Brown placed significant emphasis on his assertion that they remain the best team to secure a stable recovery and future economic growth. However, where Labour promised a referendum on electoral reform laying all of their cards on the table at once in a seemingly desperate last Poker hand, the Conservatives (possibly more confident of their position and therefore feeling less ready to compromise on everything) stopped short of a referendum, instead promising to set up a committee to look at our voting system – a cynical observer could suggest that if there’s one way to really ensure something is kicked into the long grass it’s by setting up a committee to review it… Interestingly, David Cameron made a very clear point of emphasising the need for strong, stable and decisive government to be able to tackle the problems facing the country; should the Lib Dems reject a deal, this leaves it open to the Tories to position themselves as the only party serious about stabilising the country and being prepared to compromise; quite a clever tactic.
Regardless of this, unless this system works exceptionally well, it is likely that we will be looking at another General Election within 18 months. The Conservatives will certainly want to consolidate their position and would hope to have made some progress and demonstrated their ability to govern the country within that time.
The critical element on which the Conservatives and Lib Dems must present a strong and coherent line is the economy. The election result has seen the pound plummet and shares slide as nervousness about the impact abounds. This can be stemmed if the market regains confidence in the leadership, however, this will mean that there needs to be a ‘no splits’ approach to issues on the economy.
Cameron and Clegg are now to talk this evening so we won’t have any further details until later tonight or tomorrow so in an Eastenders style dramatic exit, we’re all just going to have to wait until the next episode for the Clegg and Cameron show…
Original post
DISCLAIMER:
I have been informed by colleagues that occasionally my bulletins are less than politically neutral and that, whilst my particular colour of party may not win, I need to be professionally politically neutral in this review. So, whilst I could start this off by declaring that it’s a dark day for all, I won’t, and will remain politically neutral at all times. However, should any partisan comments slip into this, please take account of the following – a. I don’t work for the BBC and therefore am not obliged to allocate equal coverage; b. the need to make it vaguely interesting and entertaining; c. I started writing this at 2am…
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At the time of writing, not all results have been declared, however, overview as it currently stands is below:
In unprecedented scenes, people were turned away from polling booths in Manchester, Liverpool, Sheffield, Lewisham and Hackney after queuing for over three hours. In some cases police were called to deal with angry voters and there is a possibility of legal challenges being launched against some results. One thing that can’t be said about this campaign is that it didn’t engage the voters – although Gillian Duffy may prefer to go back to the days when politicians just shook hands, kissed babies and smiled sweetly (as may half of the Labour command). This has been the first campaign where mediums such as Twitter and Facebook have played a central role, in particular engaging younger voters and adding a different energy to the campaign. In addition, the Leader debates ignited the fight in a way which has never been seen before, catapulting Nick Clegg to centre-stage and making the impossible really seem possible for a while.
It has been something of a marathon rather than a sprint with only half of the seats being declared by 4am. The headline news, which I’m sure you all know by now, is that we are in the position of having a hung parliament and it is really quite unclear who will be able to form a government and how – there are deals to be done! However, it is likely that the Lib Dems will come out with less seats than they went in with – something of a disaster given the high expectations and Nick Clegg has already spoken of his disappointment. Although, as they maintain, it is the percentage of vote share which they regard as important – this will not be known immediately. The Lib Dems remain guarded with respect to under what terms they will support a party and whether that will be changeable support meaning that specific policy issues are pressed extremely hard – clearly democratic reform being one but other fundamental issues on energy and environment could also be key. Clegg is expected to hold a meeting with his senior team tomorrow to determine just how they will go about working out which party to support and effectively selecting a future Prime Minister, at least for the time being…
The reaction of the markets to a hung parliament remains to be seen, it may not be as dramatic as anticipated – although given the collapse in the markets yesterday on the back of the Greece crisis and the general unprecedented times we seem to be in, quite literally anything can happen.
It has been a most unusual election campaign, where the exception tended to be more common than the rule – this has carried through to the results. It is difficult to draw conclusions from the very mixed-bag of results, although local factors seem to be quite significant which accounts for the mixed bag of results – for example, Birmingham Edgbaston, which the Conservatives expected to win, was held by Gisela Stuart – very possibly on the basis of her rebellion against the Labour leadership which won her support locally. Elsewhere, the Conservatives didn’t gain seats they were expecting to win including Torbay, Gelding, Exeter and Tooting, but gained in areas which were rather unexpected such as Harrogate and several seats in Wales. To the undoubted relief of the leadership, the Conservatives won Battersea – a critical marginal, if they didn’t win this they really wouldn’t be getting anywhere. Psephologists and others fascinated by voting patterns are likely to be kept busy for a while to come trying to decipher what patterns have emerged (if any) and what this says about how and why we vote in the UK.
As results started to come in, there was by no means a steady toppling of Labour ministers and Labour seats – although some key losses for the Labour Party were notched up. However, the Liberal Democrats seemed to suffer in key marginal’s where the Conservatives started to eat into some of their seats – Nick Clegg’s popularity after the debates seemed to wane in the actual event. The Lib Dems simply haven’t ticked seats off their list and have by no means seen the last stretch surge in popularity translate into seats.
Included in some of the shock Lib Dem losses is Montgomeryshire – previously held by asteroid-spotting and former other half of one of the Cheeky Girls, Lembit Opik, who declared himself to be ‘really hugely disappointed’ and Oxford West & Abingdon, held by prominent Lib Dem MP, Evan Davis. In addition, the Lid Dems lost Cornwall South West which will be a blow to their standing in the south west and failed to gain Guildford, which was their number one target seat and required overturning a majority of just 0.2%, in the event the Conservatives won on a swing of over 14%.
In London, the results have again been mixed with not many seats changing hands in the early stages but counts taking longer here than in most other locations.
Scalp Taking…
Jacqui Smith, former Home Secretary, was trounced by the Conservatives in Redditch reversing a majority of 2,000 to Labour to a Conservative majority of 6,000. However, Ed Balls held onto his seat despite the Conservatives hoping to take it after an intensive, Ashcroft-funded campaign; the Conservatives achieved a 9.3% swing but it just wasn’t quite enough. The next door seat of Pontefract, held by Balls’ wife Yvette Cooper, was subject to a 12% swing. However, Cooper managed to hold on and so the country’s best-loved (only??) political couple remains in tact – good thing really, if one had held on and the other had lost it may have been grounds for divorce… On the other hand, Ann Keen was defeated in Brentford but her husband retained his seat in Feltham – however, given the allegations regarding how much money they made out of the taxpayer on expenses they will probably mange to ride out the drop in joint income…
The Liberal Democrats took Norwich South from Labour which sees Charles Clarke pushed further out into the hinterland…
Julia Goldsworthy – Liberal Democrat MP for Camborne & Redruth and Lib Dem frontbencher has been defeated by the Conservatives. This is a further major blow for the Lib Dems. However, they managed to unset Conservative MP, David Heathcoat-Amory, in Wells. Heathcoat-Amory has been MP for the area since 1983.
Other MPs of notes – Mike O’Brien, Bill Rammell, Shahid Malik, Tony McNulty, Jim Knight
A recount is taking place in Oldham where Immigration Minister, Phil Woolas, is fighting for his seat. The count has not yet begun in Poplar & Limehouse or Bethnal Green & Bow where allegations of fraud, corruption and vote-rigging have made the national press and therefore results are expected to be monitored as closely as elections in Zimbabwe…
Significant Others…
Shadow Housing minister, Grant Shapps, as expected, retained his seat – it would be rather shocking if the waters of Welwyn Hatfield were anything other than blue. However, he has increased his already substantial majority to a massive 17,423. Should the Conservatives form a Government, it is anticipated that Shapps will retain his housing brief - talk of possible promotion to Secretary of State has not been ruled out…
Many will be relieved to know that Esther Ranzen failed in her bid to become the next Martin Bell, polling just over 1,000 votes, with Labour holding Luton South – a key seat for them in this area…
In some of the inner cities, there remains a pooling of red; most of Birmingham remains Labour with the outer areas Conservative – classic doughnut effect.
In Scotland it has been a very mixed picture - national exit polls were showing a swing of over 5% to the Conservatives in Scotland, however, early results showed an actual swing to Labour of just under 1% – this includes PPS’s very own Thomas Docherty being elected in Dunfermline and a shock result for Labour in Glasgow East where they beat the SNP to take back the seat which was lost in a by-election in the midst of a row over the 10p tax.
In Northern Ireland, First Minister Peter Robinson saw his share of the vote collapse, losing his seat in Belfast East to Alliance Deputy Leader, Naomi Long and throwing his political future into doubt. This comes on the back of the recent ‘Mrs Robinson’ scandal which saw his wife embroiled in allegations of corruption.
In Barking, Margaret Hodge increased her majority by 6,000 in a battle against the BNP where there were real fears the the BNP could potentially make significant headway.
Never missing a trick to ask about non-Doms, the BBC grilled Lord Ashcroft to no avail – the man is a master of verbal evasion.
The Green’s won their first ever Parliamentary seat in Brighton Pavilion with Green Party Leader, Caroline Lucas taking the seat from Labour.
What does it mean for us?
Well, at the moment, not much. The priority of a hung parliament is unlikely to be amending or reviewing policy relating to planning, housing, energy, environment or development. That said, as fundamental decisions on major infrastructure and energy need to be made, the debate and support from across parties will be critical.
The national results will need to be cross-referenced with the local results which will not come in until later on today and over the weekend, it will be Sunday or Monday at the earliest when a clearer picture will emerge of the national and local picture.
We will keep you updated over the weekend as a local and national picture emerges…
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Key Conservative Gains
- Basildon South & Thurrock East
- Vale of Glamorgan
- Aberconwy
- Loughbrough
- Battersea – critical for the Conservatives
- Swindon South – a key target and Labour marginal
- Broxtowe – the Conservative won by just a 3 figure majority in an area where the swing should have been significantly more
- Blackpool North
- Ashfield – Geoff Hoon’s former extremely safe seat
- Stroud South
- Corby
- Northampton South
- Oxford West & Abingdon - a severe blow for the Lib Dems
- Montgomeryshire
- Redditch
- Crawley
- Romsey & Southampton North
- Harlow
- Dartford
- Richmond Park – Zac Goldsmith succeed in beating Lib Dem Susan Kramer
- Truro & Falmouth
Unsuccessful Conservative Target Seats:
- Birmingham Edgbaston – after several recounts, Labour retained this seat with a majority of 1,274
- Torbay
- Gelding
- Tooting
- Exeter
- Somerset & Frome (Rees-Mogg junior will be devastated as he retires back to his country pile where he was ensconced for most of the campaign rather than going out and actually meeting the public)
- Taunton Deane
- Hammersmith & Fulham – a blow for the Conservatives in their attempts to ensure a stronghold in London
- Westminster North
Written by Stephen Byfield